Co-authors: Marco Gonzalez-Navarro (UC Berkeley), Harrison Wheeler (U Toronto), and Rik Williams
We study how ride-hailing and public transit interact—an open question with important implications for transportation policy and urban form. We develop a dynamic model of mode choice that features three key mechanisms: (i) substitution, whereby riders switch from Uber to transit near stations; (ii) last-mile complementarity, whereby Uber is used to access transit; and (iii) a dynamic choice-set effect, whereby outbound mode choice constrains return options, giving Uber option value.
We test the model's implications using a dynamic difference-in-differences design combined with new data on 650 global rail transit expansions and the universe of nearby Uber trips. We document three patterns consistent with each of the above mechanisms: Uber usage rises sharply within 100 meters of new stations (last-mile complementarity), declines locally among nearby residents and workers (substitution), and falls modestly overall for these users as local reductions are partially offset by increased Uber usage elsewhere (option value).
We estimate the model to rationalize these patterns and simulate counterfactuals. We find that while transit and Uber are substitutes in the aggregate, their local interaction depends on competing forces often overlooked in prior work.
Jonathan D. Hall is the M. Christian Mitchell Associate Professor in Real Estate and Economics at the University of Alabama. His research strives to improve urban transportation systems by focusing on three broad themes: first, understanding and addressing traffic congestion, second, evaluating the impacts of new transportation technologies on cities, and third, improving transportation safety. His research uses a variety of theoretical and empirical methods, including structural and reduced-form approaches, to address these themes.
His work has been published in leading academic journals including Science, the Journal of the European Economics Association, the International Economic Review, and Transportation Research Part B, and covered by media outlets including The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, The Telegraph (United Kingdom), and CBC (Canada). My work has been honored by the Sakip Sabanci International Research Award, the Best Dissertation Award by the Transportation and Public Utilities Group, and the Best Paper Award at the Kumho-Nectar Conference on Transportation Economics.
Host: Prof Wen WANG, Assistant Professor, Division of Social Science, HKUST